Why has the alumina price fallen at present
with the arrival of the cold winter, the price of industrial alumina, which has soared 11 times in a row from September to October, finally began to fall with the decline of temperature. At present, the spot price has dropped from about 3700 yuan/ton at the beginning of last month to about 3360 yuan/ton. Many bullish factors such as environmental protection and production restriction have not prevented the alumina price from returning to rationality
it is reasonable to say that, as the industry generally guessed before, to improve the realization of its functions, with the deepening of supply side reform and the pressure of environmental protection and production restriction, the price of alumina should have an enviable room to rise. However, the fact is contrary to the imagination. After entering November, the price of industrial alumina not only did not continue the previous crazy trend, but began to decline steadily to below 3400 yuan/ton. Compared with the highest point since September, the price drop was as high as 10%
for this "abnormal" price change, the powder circle specially consulted experts in the aluminum oxide industry, who gave three opinions
the high price of electrolytic aluminum collapses, and the price reduction of industrial alumina reduces the downstream pressure.
like alumina, due to the vigorous implementation of supply side reform and the environmental protection and production restriction in northern winter, the domestic aluminum price is also expected to rise all the way. However, it was the market's expectation of the contraction of the aluminum supply side that supported the continuous rise of the aluminum price at the beginning. When this expectation was broken, that is, the actual production reduction was contrary to the expectation, the aluminum price finally failed to support this high level and collapsed
the spot price of industrial alumina is high all the way, which can be imagined as the pressure on electrolytic aluminum enterprises. Even for electrolytic aluminum enterprises that have obtained long unit prices, if they do not have energy advantages (some enterprises in Northwest China have electricity price advantages), the cost of producing 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum will never be lower than 15000 yuan, that is, compared with aluminum ingots with a quotation of about 14400 yuan/ton, it is an established fact that income cannot make ends meet. However, it is impossible for enterprises to sustain losses for a long time, and alumina enterprises cannot eat up all the downstream profit space for their own interests. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to reduce the price of alumina
the price of alumina has been falsely high, and the market is gradually returning to rationality.
just as what was said in an article published in the powder circle, "on the night when Weiqiao was limited in production, Chinalco alumina raised its price again, rising 11 times in two months", the price of commodities can not fluctuate without its value, or it can not deviate too far from its value, and finally it should return to rationality
in this regard, we also verified with experts the current cost situation of PolyOne, an industrial oxidation company, starting marketing refolex aluminum at the end of 2012. He replied that the tax included cost of industrial alumina is now about yuan/ton. In contrast, the current alumina quotation is still falsely high. So it seems that even though the alumina price has gradually returned to value, there is still a long way to go to be "reasonable"
the demand for non metallurgical alumina decreases, and the price of industrial alumina is affected.
although non metallurgical alumina only accounts for a small part of alumina, its impact can not be ignored. Similarly, due to the impact of environmental protection and production restriction, the downstream enterprises of non metallurgical alumina have also been limited. However, unlike alumina and electrolytic aluminum enterprises, most of the downstream enterprises of non metallurgical alumina are highly polluting enterprises. In addition to being limited, some enterprises have been shut down for rectification, so the affected part is far more than 30%. Because industrial alumina is the raw material for the production of non metallurgical alumina, when the demand for non metallurgical alumina comes down, the price of industrial alumina will naturally be affected
in addition to the above three points of the one-way valve of the cement constant stress press, we also need to pay attention to the upcoming price fluctuation: before the Spring Festival every year, the price of industrial alumina will rise slightly due to the hoarding demand of electrolytic aluminum enterprises. However, from the current situation and development trend, there is no room for the price of alumina to rise. How about the quotation at that time? Let's see if the pressure of alumina production restriction and the environmental protection pressure of downstream alumina industry can overcome the pressure of seasonal rise
in fact, in the early years, there was another very important factor affecting the price of aluminum, that is, the traffic problem in winter. If the roads were closed by heavy snow, for most of the electrolytic aluminum plants in the northwest at that time, it was a dilemma that the raw materials could not be imported and the products could not be exported, and the price of aluminum ingots also soared. Fortunately, the traffic environment is good now, so you don't have to worry too much about such incidents